DISCLOSURE: The views or comments shared by Bill Boorman within this headline reflect their own experience and opinion. According to Boorman, they have no financial relationship, sponsorship, or partnership with any vendors, services, or affiliates mentioned here.
by Bill Boorman
2026 is opening with a clear imbalance: Job seeker activity is rising sharply, while the number of available jobs is lower than a year ago.
According to Austin, Texas-based labor market data firm LinkUp, advertised job listings in January were roughly 12% lower than at the same point last year. That year-on-year decline reframes the surge in search and application activity seen since the holidays. The market is characterized by increased interest but fewer opportunities.
That context underpins the opening message from San Francisco-based labor market research unit Indeed Hiring Lab. Its February update leads with a sharp rise in job seeker search activity in January compared with early December. Seasonally, that pattern is familiar, as job seekers usually become more active at the start of the year.
A “low-hire, low-fire” environment
Hiring activity failed to increase alongside the surge in searches, and postings showed little movement compared with late 2025. When placed against January 2025, the difference is clear. Hiring demand has not just paused at the turn of the year, it is running below last year’s level.
Indeed Hiring Lab describes the current environment as “low-hire, low-fire.” Employers are not expanding headcount at scale, but they are also not shedding staff aggressively. Layoffs remain subdued, voluntary quits are low, and overall labor churn is muted. The market is stable, but it is not growing.
This imbalance is most visible in application data. Düsseldorf-based hiring services company the Stepstone Group reported application volumes up roughly 55% year on year at the start of 2026. The figure is striking, but it does not signal a rebound in hiring demand. It reflects intensified competition among job seekers for a smaller pool of open roles.
When job volumes fall and interest rises, pressure concentrates. More searches translate into more applications per role rather than more roles overall. Activity increases, but throughput does not.
This reading is reinforced by Düsseldorf-based labor market research unit D Lab, which has highlighted a similar pattern across European markets: elevated job seeker engagement alongside restrained employer demand. The signal is not one of collapse but of congestion.
The rise in applications may appear counterintuitive given low separation rates, but it aligns with what New Hampshire-based rectech company Appcast has described as “The Great Stay.” Job seekers are searching and applying while holding onto existing employment.
Quits remain low not because job seekers remain cautious. Changing roles carries more perceived risk when hiring demand is weak and decision timelines are long. Search and application activity becomes a hedge rather than a commitment.
A reduction in friction amplifies that behavior. Applying is easier and faster than it was even a few years ago, reducing the cost of testing the market. At the same time, slower hiring cycles and higher employer requirements push job seekers to apply more broadly to offset rejection risk. Volume rises without increased mobility.
As for employers, hiring plans are conservative, budgets are tightly controlled and urgency is limited. Many organizations are focused on selective backfilling rather than expansion. The result is a market defined by stable employment, weaker demand for new hires and rising applicant density.
More job seekers are active, but there are fewer jobs to move into.
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#job-market-trends
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